← Serie B 2015-16 · Mon, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cesena win | 48% | 45% | 2.02 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 32% | 3.26 | value: +4% |
| Crotone win | 22% | 23% | 4.47 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cesena | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 322.00 | 322.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1509.02 | 1582.79 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -16.27 | 19.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 55.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.53 | 2.06 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |