← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella win | 48% | 44% | 2.04 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 33% | 3.37 | value: +13% |
| Modena win | 23% | 23% | 4.21 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Entella | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 381.00 | 1142.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1501.06 | 1396.23 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 3.19 | -43.59 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -1.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.40 |
| league points | 54.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.03 |
| state index | 0.15 | -1.28 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.80 |