← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trapani win | 57% | 61% | 1.72 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 26% | 23% | 3.72 | fair |
| Ascoli win | 17% | 17% | 5.72 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trapani | Ascoli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 412.00 | 167.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1532.79 | 1415.00 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 58.63 | 17.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 15.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.30 |
| league points | 56.00 | 42.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| state index | 0.90 | -0.17 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |