← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 49% | 57% | 1.98 | value: +12% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.37 | fair |
| Livorno win | 22% | 18% | 4.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 320.00 | 106.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1503.84 | 1380.82 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -13.66 | -38.30 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.14 | 0.48 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 56.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.60 | 0.94 |
| state index | -0.43 | -1.57 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.00 |