← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 63% | 67% | 1.55 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 23% | 20% | 4.28 | fair |
| Brescia win | 14% | 14% | 6.78 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 3 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cagliari Calcio | Brescia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 320.00 | 320.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1580.79 | 1465.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -32.73 | 6.44 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.14 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 68.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.94 | 1.46 |
| state index | -0.22 | -0.49 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |