← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana win | 34% | 36% | 2.86 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 32% | 2.95 | fair |
| Crotone win | 33% | 33% | 2.97 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ternana | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 221.00 | 313.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1454.46 | 1577.12 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.35 | -0.93 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.70 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| league points | 44.00 | 70.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 2.06 |
| state index | 0.13 | 0.22 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |