← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Apr 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 36% | 47% | 2.73 | value: +27% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 2.98 | fair |
| Trapani win | 32% | 24% | 3.09 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Trapani |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1135.00 | 405.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1411.41 | 1517.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.24 | 45.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 13.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 36.00 | 53.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.06 | 1.56 |
| state index | -0.76 | 0.75 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 2.40 |