← Serie B 2015-16 · Sun, Apr 3, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novara win | 59% | 66% | 1.66 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 26% | 22% | 3.71 | fair |
| Salernitana win | 15% | 12% | 6.48 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Novara | Salernitana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 307.00 | 642.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1517.12 | 1336.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.00 | 3.17 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.43 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.10 |
| league points | 55.00 | 31.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.67 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.35 | -0.74 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |