← Serie B 2015-16 · Fri, Apr 1, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 62% | 54% | 1.58 | fair |
| Draw | 24% | 28% | 4.03 | value: +11% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 14% | 18% | 6.89 | value: +26% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 305.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1572.01 | 1446.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.74 | 28.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.35 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.45 | 0.20 |
| league points | 67.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.96 | 5.96 |
| season ppg | 2.03 | 1.24 |
| state index | 0.19 | 0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |