← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 50% | 54% | 1.95 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 29% | 26% | 3.31 | fair |
| Trapani win | 21% | 20% | 4.74 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Trapani |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 146.00 | 391.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1547.48 | 1491.05 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.15 | 28.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.95 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.35 |
| league points | 51.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.47 |
| state index | 0.61 | 0.42 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.40 |