← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari Calcio win | 41% | 39% | 2.34 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.04 | fair |
| Modena win | 27% | 31% | 3.64 | value: +11% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Cagliari Calcio |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1121.00 | 299.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1416.18 | 1601.58 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.35 | -47.79 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.42 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.35 |
| league points | 35.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.09 | 2.03 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |