← Serie B 2015-16 · Sat, Mar 26, 03:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Como 1907 win | 39% | 27% | 2.50 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 32% | 3.19 | fair |
| Virtus Entella win | 30% | 41% | 3.22 | value: +31% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Como 1907 | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1149.00 | 360.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1313.28 | 1497.03 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.37 | 17.40 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 9.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.57 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 26.00 | 49.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 10.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 0.81 | 1.53 |
| state index | -0.65 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |