← Serie B 2014-15 · Fri, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 58% | 45% | 1.68 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.88 | value: +18% |
| Bari win | 17% | 25% | 5.77 | value: +44% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Bari |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 325.00 | 202.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1560.02 | 1487.78 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 47.97 | 8.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.40 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.51 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 64.00 | 54.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.56 | 1.32 |
| state index | 0.91 | -0.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.60 |