← Serie B 2014-15 · Fri, May 22, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 76% | 51% | 1.29 | fair |
| Draw | 17% | 31% | 5.86 | value: +83% |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 8% | 18% | 12.96 | value: +133% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 21.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1556.33 | 1459.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -5.91 | -32.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| league points | 65.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 8.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.59 | 1.22 |
| state index | 0.05 | -1.10 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.40 |