← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pescara win | 64% | 42% | 1.53 | fair |
| Draw | 22% | 27% | 4.41 | value: +17% |
| Varese win | 14% | 31% | 6.92 | value: +116% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 319.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1350.13 | 1524.50 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.38 | 12.50 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.53 | 0.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 36.00 | 58.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 0.90 | 1.45 |
| state index | -0.93 | 0.06 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.40 |