← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 43% | 49% | 2.26 | value: +10% |
| Draw | 32% | 32% | 3.04 | fair |
| Ternana win | 25% | 19% | 3.94 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 806.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.68 | 1416.70 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -18.62 | -27.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.84 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.05 |
| league points | 46.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 5.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.13 |
| state index | -0.51 | -0.96 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.00 |