← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 16, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 45% | 48% | 2.18 | value: +4% |
| Draw | 29% | 30% | 3.32 | fair |
| Vicenza win | 26% | 23% | 3.77 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Livorno | Vicenza |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 76.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1507.92 | 1516.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 8.03 | -7.49 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 0.67 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.20 |
| league points | 58.00 | 64.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since blank | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.45 | 1.60 |
| state index | 0.06 | -0.24 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.60 |