← Serie B 2014-15 · Fri, May 15, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 54% | 30% | 1.79 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 34% | 3.49 | value: +18% |
| Carpi win | 18% | 37% | 5.55 | value: +103% ⚠ |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Perugia | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 652.00 | 318.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1549.88 | 1620.65 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.62 | -8.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.16 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| league points | 60.00 | 79.00 |
| league rank | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.98 |
| state index | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.40 |