← Serie B 2014-15 · Sun, May 10, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crotone win | 74% | 50% | 1.32 | fair |
| Draw | 18% | 27% | 5.55 | value: +52% |
| Varese win | 9% | 23% | 11.30 | value: +155% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1225.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1465.79 | 1355.59 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -10.89 | -1.84 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.88 | 0.52 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.20 |
| league points | 44.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.13 | 0.92 |
| state index | -0.15 | -0.81 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 0.80 |