← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trapani win | 39% | 35% | 2.48 | fair |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | 2.85 | fair |
| Modena win | 26% | 36% | 3.68 | value: +32% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Trapani | Modena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 69.00 | 799.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1437.51 | 1498.21 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -20.85 | 10.02 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.37 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 46.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 13.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.58 | -0.07 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |