← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 9, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana win | 44% | 47% | 2.24 | value: +6% |
| Draw | 33% | 30% | 2.97 | fair |
| PRO Vercelli win | 24% | 23% | 4.13 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Ternana | PRO Vercelli |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1429.12 | 1403.42 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.08 | 11.12 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.23 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| league points | 45.00 | 45.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.68 | -0.51 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |