← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PRO Vercelli win | 44% | 36% | 2.22 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 30% | 3.09 | fair |
| Crotone win | 25% | 34% | 3.98 | value: +35% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PRO Vercelli | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1217.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1392.74 | 1476.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.38 | 15.56 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 42.00 | 44.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 17.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.11 | 1.16 |
| state index | -0.71 | -0.15 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |