← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 35% | 34% | 2.76 | fair |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 33% | 33% | 2.99 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | 3.05 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1278.00 | 1.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 5.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1507.50 | 1572.76 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 43.93 | -7.81 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.27 | 1.10 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.25 |
| league points | 64.00 | 63.00 |
| league rank | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.68 | 1.66 |
| state index | 0.57 | -0.00 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.20 |