← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, May 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 52% | 47% | 1.87 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 30% | 3.58 | value: +7% |
| Cittadella win | 21% | 23% | 4.75 | value: +9% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 182.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1485.65 | 1429.38 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -11.14 | -36.76 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 1.03 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.40 |
| league points | 48.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.26 | 1.05 |
| state index | -0.46 | -1.12 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.00 |