← Serie B 2014-15 · Tue, Apr 28, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Entella win | 61% | 42% | 1.61 | fair |
| Draw | 25% | 30% | 3.90 | value: +18% |
| Varese win | 14% | 28% | 6.88 | value: +95% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Entella | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 27.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1444.47 | 1349.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -34.48 | -17.74 |
| form points (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.00 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.25 |
| league points | 42.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 13.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 0.89 |
| state index | -0.89 | -1.66 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.20 |