← Serie B 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 27, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 42% | 57% | 2.33 | value: +34% ⚠ |
| Draw | 30% | 27% | 3.26 | fair |
| Catania win | 28% | 16% | 3.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bologna FC 1909 | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 481.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1561.59 | 1530.92 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -9.28 | 57.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 2.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.35 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.35 |
| league points | 60.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 11.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| season ppg | 1.62 | 1.27 |
| state index | -0.18 | 0.89 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.60 |