← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 43% | 40% | 2.27 | fair |
| Draw | 29% | 27% | 3.33 | fair |
| Pescara win | 28% | 33% | 3.53 | value: +17% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Pescara |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1491.48 | 1519.94 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -12.12 | -17.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 1.32 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 48.00 | 51.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.33 | 1.42 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.11 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.40 |