← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vicenza win | 66% | 49% | 1.48 | fair |
| Draw | 23% | 29% | 4.22 | value: +21% |
| Varese win | 11% | 22% | 8.74 | value: +95% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Vicenza | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1534.06 | 1353.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 17.24 | -30.39 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 2.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.40 | -1.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.10 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 59.00 | 33.00 |
| league rank | 3.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 5.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 12.00 |
| rest days | 8.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.64 | 0.92 |
| state index | 0.35 | -1.69 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 0.40 |