← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spezia win | 51% | 52% | 1.90 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 25% | 3.46 | fair |
| Trapani win | 20% | 23% | 4.78 | value: +8% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Spezia | Trapani |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.20 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 298.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1512.05 | 1444.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -17.34 | 3.69 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.62 | 1.41 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.30 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.30 |
| league points | 51.00 | 43.00 |
| league rank | 9.00 | 14.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 4.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.42 | 1.19 |
| state index | -0.25 | -0.44 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.40 |