← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 42% | 37% | 2.32 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Livorno win | 27% | 34% | 3.59 | value: +23% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Perugia | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 632.00 | 55.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1546.04 | 1497.71 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.58 | -18.11 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 5.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.00 | -0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.20 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.07 | 1.25 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 54.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| state index | 0.63 | -0.48 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 0.40 |