← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frosinone Calcio win | 38% | 33% | 2.54 | fair |
| Draw | 32% | 29% | 3.04 | fair |
| Carpi win | 29% | 38% | 3.32 | value: +25% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Frosinone Calcio | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1271.00 | 298.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1484.99 | 1635.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 24.25 | 43.63 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.32 | 1.07 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.45 |
| league points | 58.00 | 74.00 |
| league rank | 4.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 8.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.61 | 2.06 |
| state index | 0.36 | 1.29 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.60 | 2.60 |