← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 25, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 57% | 49% | 1.72 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 31% | 3.48 | value: +8% |
| Virtus Entella win | 15% | 20% | 6.36 | value: +28% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Avellino | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1028.00 | 24.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1483.52 | 1441.61 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -21.29 | -24.00 |
| form points (last 5) | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 1.15 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.25 |
| league points | 53.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 8.00 | 19.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 4.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 1.14 |
| state index | -0.28 | -0.72 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.00 |