← Serie B 2014-15 · Fri, Apr 24, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 47% | 30% | 2.06 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 35% | 3.26 | value: +14% |
| Bologna FC 1909 win | 23% | 35% | 4.26 | value: +48% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Bologna FC 1909 |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 174.00 | 478.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1479.76 | 1562.24 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.15 | -10.67 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 46.00 | 59.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 6.00 |
| season ppg | 1.28 | 1.64 |
| state index | -0.16 | -0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.60 |