← Serie B 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avellino win | 55% | 36% | 1.76 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 32% | 3.66 | value: +16% |
| Varese win | 18% | 32% | 5.48 | value: +77% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Avellino |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 1022.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1351.52 | 1485.62 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -43.19 | -28.01 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.52 | 0.99 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 32.00 | 52.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 0.91 | 1.49 |
| state index | -1.98 | -0.60 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |