← Serie B 2014-15 · Sun, Apr 19, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina win | 44% | 47% | 2.20 | value: +3% |
| Draw | 30% | 31% | 3.25 | fair |
| Catania win | 26% | 22% | 3.80 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Latina | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 105.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1499.33 | 1510.10 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.77 | 25.82 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 1.40 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.25 |
| league points | 41.00 | 41.00 |
| league rank | 17.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| season ppg | 1.17 | 1.17 |
| state index | -0.09 | 0.33 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.20 |