← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 18, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 34% | 31% | 2.86 | fair |
| Crotone win | 33% | 40% | 2.93 | value: +16% |
| Draw | 33% | 29% | 3.00 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Crotone | Virtus Lanciano |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1203.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1478.51 | 1490.09 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 31.11 | -4.68 |
| form points (last 5) | 9.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.82 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 10.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| season ppg | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| state index | 0.36 | -0.37 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.40 | 0.40 |