← Serie B 2014-15 · Mon, Apr 13, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 69% | 51% | 1.41 | fair |
| Draw | 21% | 27% | 4.73 | value: +27% |
| Varese win | 10% | 22% | 9.37 | value: +105% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Perugia | Varese |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 620.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1541.35 | 1357.43 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 25.70 | -48.07 |
| form points (last 5) | 11.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.80 | -2.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 2.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.97 | 0.53 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.90 | 0.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 50.00 | 32.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 22.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 10.00 |
| rest days | 11.00 | 11.00 |
| season ppg | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| state index | 0.61 | -1.78 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 1.00 |