← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 45% | 38% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 33% | 34% | 2.99 | fair |
| Latina win | 22% | 28% | 4.36 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Latina |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 97.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1491.35 | 1507.36 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -1.07 | 0.38 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.10 |
| league points | 46.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 10.00 | 15.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 4.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.35 | 1.21 |
| state index | -0.03 | 0.03 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |