← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Livorno win | 37% | 46% | 2.62 | value: +21% |
| Draw | 33% | 27% | 2.99 | fair |
| PRO Vercelli win | 30% | 26% | 3.23 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | PRO Vercelli | Livorno |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 41.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1392.30 | 1501.29 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 2.49 | -20.71 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | -0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.94 | 1.70 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.25 |
| league points | 39.00 | 50.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 7.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 4.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.47 |
| state index | -0.52 | -0.41 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.80 |