← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 52% | 51% | 1.89 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 29% | 3.18 | fair |
| Virtus Entella win | 18% | 19% | 5.48 | value: +7% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 2 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 771.00 | 10.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1488.19 | 1455.81 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -24.40 | 0.47 |
| form points (last 5) | 3.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.40 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 39.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 18.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| state index | -0.64 | -0.34 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |