← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carpi win | 35% | 42% | 2.75 | value: +14% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.00 | fair |
| Cittadella win | 32% | 27% | 3.04 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Carpi |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.00 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | — | 284.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1458.77 | 1621.54 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -7.95 | 25.08 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -0.20 | 1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 0.60 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.99 | 1.05 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.35 |
| league points | 39.00 | 68.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 10.00 |
| season ppg | 1.15 | 2.00 |
| state index | -0.33 | 0.84 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 2.20 |