← Serie B 2014-15 · Sat, Apr 11, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bari win | 51% | 46% | 1.93 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 29% | 3.24 | fair |
| Crotone win | 19% | 24% | 5.09 | value: +22% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Bari | Crotone |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 161.00 | 1196.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1480.81 | 1476.68 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -8.31 | 37.51 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 11.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.05 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 44.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 9.00 | 9.00 |
| season ppg | 1.29 | 1.15 |
| state index | -0.06 | 0.18 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 0.60 |