← Serie B 2014-15 · Thu, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perugia win | 37% | 34% | 2.66 | fair |
| Virtus Entella win | 32% | 35% | 3.06 | value: +8% |
| Draw | 32% | 31% | 3.08 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Entella | Perugia |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 1.00 | 609.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1471.02 | 1526.14 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 27.62 | 0.31 |
| form points (last 5) | 10.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.20 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.06 | 1.06 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.60 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.30 | 0.25 |
| league points | 40.00 | 47.00 |
| league rank | 14.00 | 9.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.21 | 1.42 |
| state index | 0.24 | -0.01 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |