← Serie B 2014-15 · Thu, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Catania win | 43% | 32% | 2.29 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 26% | 3.19 | fair |
| Varese win | 27% | 42% | 3.64 | value: +52% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 2 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Varese | Catania |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1372.43 | 1482.47 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -45.87 | -0.10 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 6.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -2.20 | -0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.60 | 0.60 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| league points | 32.00 | 35.00 |
| league rank | 22.00 | 21.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 6.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 9.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 0.97 | 1.06 |
| state index | -1.81 | -0.27 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.20 | 0.60 |