← Serie B 2014-15 · Thu, Apr 2, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latina win | 47% | 44% | 2.09 | fair |
| Draw | 31% | 34% | 3.14 | value: +5% |
| Cittadella win | 22% | 23% | 4.45 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Latina | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 88.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1500.00 | 1466.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.24 | 12.22 |
| form points (last 5) | 7.00 | 8.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.80 | 0.20 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.10 | 0.35 |
| league points | 37.00 | 39.00 |
| league rank | 19.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 11.96 | 4.00 |
| season ppg | 1.16 | 1.18 |
| state index | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.60 |