← Serie B 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Virtus Lanciano win | 56% | 50% | 1.74 | fair |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | 3.59 | fair |
| Virtus Entella win | 17% | 22% | 5.89 | value: +30% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Virtus Entella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.10 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| elo | 1491.91 | 1478.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -0.82 | 16.99 |
| form points (last 5) | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.74 | 0.97 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.50 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.25 | 0.30 |
| league points | 43.00 | 40.00 |
| league rank | 11.00 | 12.00 |
| matches since blank | 2.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.34 | 1.25 |
| state index | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.20 |