← Serie B 2014-15 · Sun, Mar 29, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cittadella win | 45% | 44% | 2.17 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.20 | fair |
| Ternana win | 25% | 25% | 3.96 | fair |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Cittadella | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| congestion 21d | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| elo | 1469.42 | 1410.95 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 18.35 | -36.94 |
| form points (last 5) | 8.00 | 1.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.60 | -1.20 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.40 | 0.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.92 | 0.92 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.60 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.40 | 0.20 |
| league points | 38.00 | 36.00 |
| league rank | 16.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 0.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 0.00 | 7.00 |
| rest days | 7.96 | 7.96 |
| season ppg | 1.19 | 1.13 |
| state index | 0.14 | -1.16 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.60 | 1.00 |