← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 58% | 30% | 1.57 | fair |
| Virtus Lanciano win | 29% | 42% | 3.10 | value: +30% |
| Cittadella win | 13% | 28% | 7.00 | value: +98% ⚠ |
across 2 bookmakers · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Virtus Lanciano | Cittadella |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1482.42 | 1444.13 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 7.57 | 17.77 |
| form points (last 5) | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.70 | 1.49 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.10 | 0.80 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| league points | 59.00 | 46.00 |
| league rank | 12.00 | 18.00 |
| matches since blank | 7.00 | 1.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since win | 5.00 | 3.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.44 | 1.12 |
| state index | -0.38 | -0.19 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 1.00 | 1.40 |