← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ternana win | 37% | 38% | 2.61 | fair |
| Reggina win | 34% | 32% | 2.85 | fair |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | 3.44 | value: +3% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 1 | Half-time score | 1 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Reggina | Ternana |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.15 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 180.00 | — |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1348.38 | 1449.85 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | -25.51 | -31.90 |
| form points (last 5) | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | -1.20 | -1.00 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 0.79 | 0.94 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 0.30 | 0.50 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.30 | 0.70 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.20 | 0.30 |
| league points | 29.00 | 48.00 |
| league rank | 21.00 | 16.00 |
| matches since blank | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 13.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since win | 13.00 | 2.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 0.71 | 1.17 |
| state index | -1.74 | -0.94 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 0.40 | 0.40 |