← Serie B 2013-14 · Fri, May 30, 02:00 PM UTC
| Outcome | Market says | Model says | Best price | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena win | 52% | 42% | 1.86 | fair |
| Draw | 30% | 30% | 3.19 | fair |
| Cesena win | 17% | 27% | 5.59 | value: +53% |
across 1 bookmaker · probabilities de-vigged (bookmaker margin removed)
| 0 | Half-time score | 0 |
What each side looked like walking in — computed only from games before this one.
| Metric | Modena | Cesena |
|---|---|---|
| blown lead rate (last 20) | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| cards avg (last 5) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| coach days | 455.00 | 636.00 |
| comeback rate (last 20) | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| congestion 21d | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| elo | 1571.45 | 1509.46 |
| elo momentum (last 5) | 42.44 | 21.06 |
| form points (last 5) | 13.00 | 12.00 |
| goal diff avg (last 5) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| goals against avg (last 5) | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| goals for avg (last 5) | 2.00 | 1.40 |
| goals volatility (last 10) | 1.23 | 0.88 |
| h2 goals (last 10) | 1.60 | 0.90 |
| h2h win rate (last 5) | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| ht lead rate (last 20) | 0.35 | 0.15 |
| league points | 63.00 | 65.00 |
| league rank | 7.00 | 6.00 |
| matches since blank | 9.00 | 5.00 |
| matches since clean sheet | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| matches since win | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| rest days | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| season ppg | 1.54 | 1.59 |
| state index | 0.77 | 0.26 |
| venue ppg (last 5) | 2.20 | 2.00 |